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KharmaTrain

(31,706 posts)

7. Polls Mean Little...Turnout Does...

Reply to Texas Lawyer (Original post)

Tue Jan 3, 2012, 05:46 PM

Jan 2012

The question is how many of those Romney people will get off their asses tonight and show up at caucuses...compared to the better organized Paulbots and fundies? Phone polls mean little when respondents won't be participating or have the chance to make up their minds at the last minute.

I'm doin' a "pick 'em" between Paul and Frothy and giving Paul the advantage due to his better organization. Mittens finishes third and he'll be closer to the lower dwarfs than the upper ones.

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Highlight:

Who got Iowa right among RealClearPolitics, Nate Silver at 538, Pollster, the DM Register, etc.? [View all] Texas Lawyer Jan 2012 OP

I can see more people out my window than will vote in all of iowa today lol nt msongs Jan 2012 #1

Yeah, but the Koch brothers didn't just spend 5 million dollars on the people out your window. Texas Lawyer Jan 2012 #10

How can you tell? NathanTheGreat Jan 2012 #2

Even Nate Silver is unsure. RandySF Jan 2012 #3

Unsure, yes. But whether we have to listen to months of crap from Perry or from Bachmann or from Texas Lawyer Jan 2012 #12

They're all pretty similar. PPP is the only courageous call, imo. n/t Laelth Jan 2012 #4

I tend to think poorly of Rasmussen and highly of PPP. They project different outcomes this time so Texas Lawyer Jan 2012 #8

I am curious as well. Laelth Jan 2012 #9

Averages of polls don't count... brooklynite Jan 2012 #5

marked Schema Thing Jan 2012 #6

Polls Mean Little...Turnout Does... KharmaTrain Jan 2012 #7

Actually, the caucus doesn't control allocation of Iowa's delegates to the Repub convention so Texas Lawyer Jan 2012 #11

Goods thread topic. aaaaaa5a Jan 2012 #13

Doesn't look like any poll accurately measured the size of Santorum's surge from behind Texas Lawyer Jan 2012 #14

It's to bad google doesn't have a poll. NT aaaaaa5a Jan 2012 #15

In fairness, only one of those is a projection cthulu2016 Jan 2012 #16