The best thing that could happen for Bredsden...

[DeminPennswoods]

15. I'm not a fan, in general, of the poll aggregator sites

I'm not a statistician, but I did spend my career trying to forecast what would be needed in the future. A lot of what went into those forecasts was based on what happened in the past. Usually that combined with specific experience was enough to be reasonably accurate, but there were times when the past was not a good predictor.

I don't think that using polls from months ago is relevent, events change too fast these days. I just look at the latest polling data and prefer polls that are run by pollsters who are familiar with the state they're polling. For example, in Pennsylvania that's the F&M Poll. This poll shows the trends for each of its polls, but it doesn't try to roll that data up to reach some sort of conclusion. It does look at what the current data is and compares it to historical data to reach conclusions which I find more credible in predicting what might happen.