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Azathoth

(4,677 posts)

10. The race was always "close by Texas standards"

Reply to bobbieinok (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2018, 05:53 PM

Oct 2018

There hasn't been a single poll that didn't have Cruz in the lead, and there have only been a handful of scattered polls with Beto in striking distance.

The truth is, in most election cycles we wouldn't be talking about this race as being in play. It's just that everyone, including Republicans, expect Democrats to outperform the polls. And Beto himself has been a surprisingly strong candidate.

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What's going on with the polls in Beto-Cruz race? Wasn't it close? Now Beto just 20% chance of win?! [View all] bobbieinok Oct 2018 OP

Republicans got a bump from republican voters over Kavanaugh JI7 Oct 2018 #1

I'd assume Kavanaugh manor321 Oct 2018 #2

too many democrats stay home instead of voting. they are ok with things as is nt msongs Oct 2018 #3

The governors race has Abbott up by 20. nycbos Oct 2018 #4

Yep there is not going to be enough vote splitters to make up for this inwiththenew Oct 2018 #11

I would not count Beto out . . . . Iliyah Oct 2018 #5

Don't believe the bullshit polls vercetti2021 Oct 2018 #6

TY for that!!! bluestarone Oct 2018 #8

Thank you for your hard work Lady_Chat Oct 2018 #15

So important ... thanks for the time and effort! JudyM Oct 2018 #29

Beto will swamp Cruz with ads the rest of the way Jersey Devil Oct 2018 #7

Read the fine print. Igel Oct 2018 #9

+1, the LV vs RV models don't account for demo changes in TX IE Clinton winning Houston subs by 160k uponit7771 Oct 2018 #13

How the fuck can you not be sure whether you like Ted Cruz or not? BlueStater Oct 2018 #17

The race was always "close by Texas standards" Azathoth Oct 2018 #10

TX was always going to be a tough slough. DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2018 #12

still following 538? We have a 100% chance of loosing if Dems in Texas don't get out way more than JCMach1 Oct 2018 #14

Don't believe polls. Never! And have faith. Kajun Gal Oct 2018 #16

At this point, it's more likely we'll pull of an upset in Mississippi than Texas. n/t BlueStater Oct 2018 #18

Maybe a DUMB question here? bluestarone Oct 2018 #19

There will only be a recount if it's closer than 1% Polybius Oct 2018 #31

Cruz started plastering the airwaves with ads is my guess. blogslut Oct 2018 #20

Cruz raised $12M in Q3. Beto raised 3X that TexasBushwhacker Oct 2018 #22

no. it's the Kavanaugh shit. republicans see how important senate control is JI7 Oct 2018 #23

Here's my theory on that: blogslut Oct 2018 #25

it's not just kavanaugh but future nominees JI7 Oct 2018 #26

You give them more credit than I do. blogslut Oct 2018 #27

the republicans are when it comes to the shit they want JI7 Oct 2018 #28

It's Texas, he was never going to win. BlueTsunami2018 Oct 2018 #21

whati I'm going is there wil be a huge turnout among democrats JI7 Oct 2018 #24

No No not so INdemo Oct 2018 #30