Hurricane Isaac impact on Tampa

[unc70]

41. Tomorrow morning better organized

The storm has been decoupled for 24+ hours. Center of circulation at different altitudes are not attached on top of esc other. Even organized storms go through eyewall replacement cycles every 36-48 hours as eye spreads out too much. Smaller vortices spin off into the big eye, forming 2-3 competing smaller eyes.

Intensities usually drop during EWRCs, so does accuracy of forecast.

Expect it look a lot different by Sunday noon. Expect it to be stronger and tracking more eastward after 48 hours.

Both the NHC and TWC are not talking much about anything past south Florida. Lots of model uncertainty now. The G-IV data and the Hurricane Hunter data will be a lot better when they can fly through the whole storm. (The aren't allowed to sample when over land.)