Who are these people whose only reason for voting for Trump in 2020 will be impeachment?

[Awsi Dooger]

5. Swing independents are the key to 2020

We have to keep them away from the incumbent. It might not be one factor that pulls them back to Trump, but an accumulation of variables, especially if the economy is viewed as strong.

Independents do not split evenly by gender...56% are male. That's what makes it a difficult balancing act to hold their support. I don't know if impeachment is guaranteed to annoy male independents and shove enough of them back to Trump, but overall I'd prefer not to take the chance.

If Trump's approval rating were 10 points lower I'd say go for it, rationalizing that no matter how impeachment played out his approval couldn't rise to danger range. We shouldn't overreact to the one poll indicating a 3 point drop. That has not been confirmed as the trend. It almost certainly will not drop 3 full points once every service is heard from. Right now we can't afford anything that pushes Trump's approval into the 44-45 range as opposed to the current 41.6% as compiled by 538.