Obviously this is all batshit crazy speculation, but I think the states in red just might be crazy enough to try IF a shit tonne of things break the right (and disastrous) way. It is basically a lot of the CSA 1.0 plus some flippers. Virginia (ironically) would probably NOT join. Indiana cuts off Illinois, Wisconsin and Minnesota from the Eastern Union States. I think UT and AZ would NOT join, especially UT, as why would the Mormons enter into a RW fundie xian christofascist state that would eventually turn on them (and yes, I know they were very sympathetic to the South in the Civil War, and Britain desperately tried to get them (the Mormons, who hated the national government are at times were in open rebellion) to open up a 'Western Front' against the Union).
the CSA 1.0
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