Could be worth Obama making a play for Arizona? GOP is split down the middle.

[Ian62]

6. Yep, that is a very good point

Johnson is not adequately reflected in polls as he is not specifically named.
Only about half his effect is probably included in current polls.
It's only small %ages but a few states are close enough for it to make a difference.

Johnson takes roughly 5 votes from Romney for every 2 from Obama, so the better he does, the better for us.
I don't know what Johnson polls like in Az.

His home state New Mexico? Was a bit of a one off.
All the rest seemed to conform to the above but there is not much data.

Ron Paul people are going to vote for Johnson, or not bother turning out.
They won't vote for Romney (the great majority).
Especially after Romney pissed them all off in Tampa. (We should try and use that.)

Just looked.
Paul only got 8.6% of vote in Az primary.
But it was closed, so there will be some more Independents.
Something around 10% of people that would otherwise normally have voted for GOP won't be.

Could be worth doing a private poll for Arizona with Gary Johnson named in it.
You might find that Romney's lead in Az is reduced from the current purported 10% to about 5%.
Then it really would be worth going for.