Want some optimism? Here's why Trump will lose in 2020... [View all]
You can listen to economists all day talk about how the (laughably) strong economy will propel Trump to victory in 2020, but the reality is this: number one is that incumbent presidents usually get in votes numbers very similar to what their approval ratings are. That gives Trump a floor of about 40% and a high of about 45%.
Number two is, old people tend to vote Republican. There are less of them alive now than there were in 2016. Young people tend to vote Democratic. There are LOTS of more them this time around that are now of voting age. Basically this article breaks down the demographics of what states have new voters compared to how many they've lost since 2016. The good news? The states that Trump flipped in 2016, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, have seen way more new Democrats register than Republicans. And they've lost quite a few Republican voters since the last election.
Remember that all the Democrat needs to do is win every state Clinton won and reclaim the blue firewall with those 3 states to win.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/09/19/more-voters-are-registering-than-dying-but-differences-by-state-could-shape/
"Then there’s Texas. We noted before that there were more new Democrats there than Republicans in our data. We’ll note here that we’re still 14 months from the general election and these numbers will shift as more people register. That said, Texas is down in the lower left part of this graph, meaning more identifiably partisan registration and more of that registration made up of Democrats. More so than California!
Interesting — but not as interesting as Michigan, where the new registrations are heavily Democratic. That’s in keeping with the average for those three states that turned red in 2016. They may have been won by Trump narrowly in 2016, but, since then, they’re registering a lot more Democrats.
Since 2016, those three states have lost 621,000 voters to death, may they rest in peace. They’ve added 1.4 million voters. L2′s data tells us that 752,000 of those new voters are Democrats and 247,000 are Republican — a difference of 505,000.
These are the states that elected Trump by a combined 78,000 votes."
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