If by impeaching Trump they could be sure that Pence would take over as president and could win the next election the would, but they can’t be sure, so they will try to stay the course with Trump as long as possible.
My bet is that they try to run out the clock on holding any Senate trial, drag their feet, tie things up in court, until the election campaign and the impeachment process become fused in the minds of the voters. Then they say that the election is a referendum on Trump and far be it from them, the GOP Senators, to usurp the will of the people so, in respect for principles of democracy, they will defer to the public will. “The people put him there so, if anyone, the people must take him out.”
If Trump wins it for them, they will boot out that lame-duck president the next time he says “boo” and instal Pence. They hate Trump’s unpredictability and national security blunders.
If he loses the next election, a Senate trial is a moot point, GOP senators don’t have to have a vote on their record, and they get to tell cry like hell about how the Democrats’ antics unfairly felled Trump and they use that to rally their base in the next mid-term election and, generally, to treat the next Democrat president no better than they treated Obama.
The only solid way out of this is swaying the opinion of Trump’s base before the Senate vote. What would be needed for that? Probably nothing less than Trump in videotape demanding deposits of gold bullion in secret Swiss bank accounts in exchange for political favours, or for releasing withheld military aid, or for looking the other way in the face of gross criminal violations. All while saying that he finds middle-class and poor Americans repulsive and easy prey for him. That would break the cognitive dissonance of the base in a way that shooting someone on 5th Avenue never could.
= new reply since forum marked as read