Our Economy Is Not Doing Great - Stop Saying It Is

[progree]

18. Deficits falling (under Obama) and rising (under Trump)

G.W. Bush inherited an economy from Clinton that had 4 budget surpluses in a row)

{#} ACTUAL Federal Spending and Deficits - Fiscal Years 2008 - 2019, in $Billions

Fiscal year 2019 ended September 30, 2019. Similarly for all the other fiscal years.

Note: all figures in this section are actual, not budgeted. I only point out that Bush signed the FY 2009 budget, and that Obama signed the FY 2017 budget.




And yes, the above numbers include payroll tax receipts (including Social Security) and Social Security benefits expenditures, since the above are unified budget numbers.

Source:
. . . https://www.cbo.gov/publication/55824 which links to the complete document at
. . . https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2019-11/55824-CBO-MBR-FY19.pdf . . . See also
. . . https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/whitehouse.gov/files/omb/budget/fy2018/hist01z1.xls
. . . https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/whitehouse.gov/files/omb/budget/fy2019/hist01z1.xls <-does not work 2/3/20
. . . (Table 1.1) for receipts, outlays, and surplus
. . . . . . https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/hist01z1-fy2020.xlsx
(Historic tables are listed at http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Historicals ).

Source for the 2008 numbers (and 2009 thru 2012 except a couple of the later years were revised by the document above):
. . . http://www.cbo.gov/publication/43698 which links to the complete document at
. . . https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/112th-congress-2011-2012/reports/43698-Nov-MBR.pdf


Aside: how it was spent (good read): https://www.cbpp.org/research/policy-basics-where-do-our-federal-tax-dollars-go


Regarding Obama's 8 years: FY 2017 federal spending is 463 B$ (13.2%) more than FY 2009 (the last Bush budgeted year).

Since the nominal (current dollar) GDP increased by 35.5% between FY 2009 (a recession low point) and FY 2017 (see next paragraph), while federal spending increased 13.2%, that means federal spending as a percentage of GDP dropped substantially during those 8 years -- from 24.46% of GDP to 20.42% of GDP (calculations below). Something to keep in mind when some rightie rants and raves about the socialist Obama spending us into the poor house.

Note: I am including FY 2017 as part of Obama's legacy because he signed the FY 2017 budget spending bills. FY 2017 runs from Oct. 1, 2016 thru Sept. 30, 2017 -- 3 2/3 months while Obama was president, and 8 1/3 months while Trump was president). Just like I assigned FY 2009 to Bush

In Current Dollars: GDP FY 2009 (2009 Q3) = $14,384.1 billion . GDP FY 2017 (2017 Q3) = $19,495.5 billion -- an increase of 35.5% over FY 2009.

Source of GDP figures: http://www.bea.gov/national/xls/gdplev.xls
where FY 2009 = Q4 2008 through Q3 2009. And FY 2017 = Q4 2016 through Q3 2017.

FY 2009: Spending / GDP = 3518/14384 = 24.46% . FY 2017: Spending / GDP = 3981/19496 = 20.42%

The Fiscal Year 2009 budget (Oct. 1, 2008 - Sept 30, 2009) was signed into law by G.W. Bush. The CBO on January 7, 2009 (13 days before Bush left office) projected a $1.2 trillion deficit for FY 2009. So all but about $200 billion of FY 2009 spending and deficits was "baked in" before Bush left office.