Flattening the Curve question for Stats/Math Nerds

[cos dem]

8. Basically, yes.

However, keep in mind these are pretty simple math models, and don't account for the inevitable feedback mechanism of human behavior. This is both good and bad. The bad part is people looking at today's data, not understanding exponential growth, and thinking things will be fine. The good part is those starting to take it seriously, with cancellation of sports, concerts, school, etc. All of this plays into a much more complicated outcome, with potentially fewer cases overall.

The one thing that can be said for sure, is that if the "flattened curve" avoids exceeding the medical capacity of our hospitals, that fewer deaths will result, because the serious cases will be able to be dealt with, rather being triaged and rationed the way they are in Italy right now.

For other math nerds:
My main area of expertise is signal processing, and I find it very interesting how the "flattened curve" resembles the impulse response of a bandlimiting filter. The energy in the impulse remains the same, but the response is stretched in time, and also delayed by the group delay of the filter.