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drray23

(8,826 posts)

7. I think the issues with most models and particularly this one

Reply to SoonerPride (Original post)

Tue May 12, 2020, 06:00 PM

May 2020

is probably not the math underneath but rather the unrealistic assumptions that they have. For example, expecting that there will be wide scale testing and good quarantining. I would like to see what all these models say if they ran them with realistic expectations or even the worst case scenario where we do nothing. That would likely result in much higher numbers and probably closer to the actual truth..

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CNN reports IHME model increases fatality forecast to 147,000 by Aug 4 [View all] SoonerPride May 2020 OP

That model has been a mess the whole time. Nt USALiberal May 2020 #1

oh yes I know, it is useless, except it is "official" model touted by the WH SoonerPride May 2020 #3

I agree! Nt USALiberal May 2020 #4

And somehow the idiotically inept WH thinks 147,000 deaths by then... brush May 2020 #6

K&R, IHME assumptions beyond asinine and the new one is too assuming we'll have "testing" that's ... uponit7771 May 2020 #2

Yes. Their assumptions are just stupid SoonerPride May 2020 #5

I think the issues with most models and particularly this one drray23 May 2020 #7

I agree. I think enough people are ignoring warnings SoonerPride May 2020 #9

We will likely hit that by the first week of July. nt Blue_true May 2020 #8

I Checked It Yesterday ProfessorGAC May 2020 #10