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In reply to the discussion: Biden with a devastating new ad. [View all]Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)Biden doesn't need to be biographical at this point. He needs to do exactly what Obama did to Mitt Romney in 2012: spend the summer months hammering the shit out his opponent. The difference is that Romney was still relatively unknown, so, that was his introduction (the Bain ads), as was the Swift Boat ads for Kerry in 2004.
So, they aren't likely to be as effective.
But where candidates struggle is trying to define themselves when, in reality, Americans, despite saying they don't, move on negative ads. They're the single-most effective ads you can run.
The fact is, Trump spent most his ads in 2016 attacking Hillary's character. Not her politics.
It worked, unfortunately.
Biden will be able to contrast himself with Trump later. But right now he needs to hammer Trump to a pulp because, as much as elections aren't decided until after Labor Day, conventional thought suggests elections start solidifying in the summer, as does the mood of the country. If Biden can set the narrative that America is complete and total chaos because of Trump, even if there's calm that returns in the fall, and economic improvement, the results will be baked into the cake already.
Remember this more than anything: In 1992, the US pulled out of recession, and received some rosy economic numbers, just before the election. But it didn't matter. Despite unemployment going down leading up to the election, and October having the best jobs report of the year (180,000), Bush still lost in an electoral landslide. Why? Because the perception was already set. Unemployment hit its peak in June, 1992 during that early 90s recession and that's all anyone could remember.
That's what Biden is doing right now. He's setting the narrative.
120,000 dead.
30 million unemployed.
A nation in chaos.
Once that perception is set, then Biden can go in as the guy who's ready to lead.