General Discussion

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)

27. Biden is not leading on his own merit

Thu Jun 18, 2020, 09:54 PM

Jun 2020

His margin is due to weakness from the other side. That is incredibly fragile and destined not to last. Trump has been in free fall.

It's like a football game where a team is a 14 point favorite solely because the other side just had 3 awful games in a row. It may look legitimate initially but then you gulp and ask yourself, "How in heck does that team deserve to be a 14 point favorite over anybody? They are never favored by anywhere near that much. They aren't special enough to be trusted with that type of favoritism."

Even if the election were held right now Biden would not win by anything close to these touted poll margins. I will always default to big picture logic above polling that does not align with that. The nation still has 9% more self-identified conservatives than liberals.

The good news for Biden is fewer undecideds than 2016 so even a small to midsize lead is more substantial than Hillary's late numbers. That will be reflected once Nate Silver starts doing his percentagewise analysis.

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Please don't anyone get too excited about poll leads now. Hillary was very far ahead [View all] pnwmom Jun 2020 OP

Good point. We were sure we had it in 2016. Hoyt Jun 2020 #1

While I Agree In General... ProfessorGAC Jun 2020 #2

Yes. And both candidates had high negative ratings. madinmaryland Jun 2020 #5

That was because there was a third person in the race -- Jill Stein -- pnwmom Jun 2020 #19

This RAB910 Jun 2020 #3

Thank you for finding that! n/t pnwmom Jun 2020 #21

hillary was never this far ahead. but dukakis was; so, point taken. unblock Jun 2020 #4

Does anyone doubt that an 'October Surprise', from trump empedocles Jun 2020 #11

Yes she was -- see the post immediately above yours. nt pnwmom Jun 2020 #20

Not really. Sure, there's a poll or two, but no time period where the average is that high. unblock Jun 2020 #32

Joe isn't also running against another progressive (Jill Stein) like Hillary was. pnwmom Jun 2020 #34

Fair points. Bit of apples and oranges. unblock Jun 2020 #37

True. However, the big difference this time though is that the undermining still_one Jun 2020 #6

Why don't you think there'll be a Comey-sequel ? AleksS Jun 2020 #15

They may try, but it's a rerun. Folks won't go for it. Anymore than they did Ukrainegate Thekaspervote Jun 2020 #18

Biden doesn't have to factor in misogyny Skittles Jun 2020 #7

just wait he might. Wait until he picks a VP before you are sure mucifer Jun 2020 #9

I am very optimistic for Joltin' Joe to trounce Fat Donny DonaldsRump Jun 2020 #8

At this rate, Trump won't make it to his convention Generic Brad Jun 2020 #10

Thanks, was wondering about Hillary's numbers........ a kennedy Jun 2020 #12

Two things to think about Poiuyt Jun 2020 #13

We elected Hillary in 2016 but the ratfucking won out...remember? abqtommy Jun 2020 #14

Yes, because her lead had dropped from the double digits to only about 2%. And that wasn't enough pnwmom Jun 2020 #22

I remember an intel guy in 2016 who said that votes were changed. That's ratfucking and it's abqtommy Jun 2020 #24

We lost in 16 because too many of the base did not show up. GulfCoast66 Jun 2020 #16

This should be the Bigly-est blowout ever... RANDYWILDMAN Jun 2020 #17

Considering he is running against the worst America has & can't improve? Brainfodder Jun 2020 #23

That just isn't true dsc Jun 2020 #25

Biden is not leading on his own merit Awsi Dooger Jun 2020 #27

actually Trump is doing better on average now than he was then dsc Jun 2020 #29

Oh BS!! Thekaspervote Jun 2020 #38

Dream on. Or, you could read about this CNN poll pnwmom Jun 2020 #28

For whatever reason that poll isn't in the RCP average dsc Jun 2020 #31

Yes -- all that and Jill Stein. Hillary had to divide the progressive vote with Stein, pnwmom Jun 2020 #35

My girlfriend is a good friend of mine.........but she never votes. Just doesn't. CaliforniaPeggy Jun 2020 #26

One very major difference DFW Jun 2020 #30

Another major difference. roamer65 Jun 2020 #33

Agreed. DFW Jun 2020 #36

2020 is not 2016.20. LakeArenal Jun 2020 #39

There is no comparison. Clinton's lead went up (10 points) one month and 2 the next grantcart Jun 2020 #40

Hillary's lead was substantial till the Comey letter, which knocked it down to 2%. pnwmom Jun 2020 #41

Let me bring you up to date on the actual data grantcart Jun 2020 #42

Excellent statement of facts instead of myths. Clinton's % wasn't consistently high as Biden's. Prof.Higgins Jun 2020 #44

AND THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY THAT blakstoneranger Jun 2020 #43

Agreed but she was never ahead like this budkin Jun 2020 #45

Did Lindsey Graham ever say anything nice about Hillary Clinton? nt greyl Jun 2020 #46

Not the same. For one thing, Biden isn't a woman or a Clinton kcr Jun 2020 #47