March super spreader event in VT! 3200 fans. How will Tulsa go?

[Terry_M]

1. Probably something in between this and the protests

All of the BLM protests don't seem to have generated any new spread.
Protesters have, generally - from all the video footage - seemed to be responsible - almost everyone is wearing masks, they are all outside and though they aren't always apart, there was some social distancing (somewhat spread out).

Baseball game before we knew wtf was going on - the other extreme.

Trump rally - something in between. It's not a baseball game. I expect some people to be conscious of social distancing and mask wearing. But probably a lot less respectful of that, the sentiment of the Trumpists being that mask wearing = socialism or whatever.
So something in between... The rally will lead to a few hundred extra cases of Covid than if there was no rally. A few hundred extra cases suggests and extra few deaths. But it doesn't change the trajectory overall, a small bump that won't register when we still have 20k+ cases a day. So he'll do it again.