https://prospect.org/coronavirus/unsanitized-deaths-may-not-spike-despite-rising-cases/
...............There is some indication that positive tests are clustering around younger people. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis said the median age for new cases was 37, and in Texas, Greg Abbott said a majority of new cases were from people under 30. Trust but verify, but it’s somewhat logical to believe that younger people are more restless and careless with social distancing measures.
We know that the COVID-19 mortality rate rises so much for older people and those who are immunocompromised. People at most risk certainly recognize those risks more than they did in, say, March, and are more likely to isolate and act accordingly. Even a small shift to younger carriers will translate into a lower overall mortality rate.
.........................While I don’t have much trust in Southern governors to respond to rising cases by mandating mask use or locking down parts of their states, they do have the ability to learn from the most egregious mistakes. Andrew Cuomo put sick people who tested positive back in nursing homes. I doubt we will see that replicated.
And we know a lot more about this disease from a medical standpoint than we did in March. There are more treatments that seem to work. Dexamethasone appears to reduce death in seriously ill patients. An osteoporosis drug is showing some promise. We know that intubation is not necessary in all patients with low oxygen levels. Doctors have been wrestling with this thing for three months and they’ve found a couple things that work, not well, but let’s say better. That could be pushing down mortality rates slightly as well.
None of this is to say that coronavirus is a benign disease. There’s clear evidence that its symptoms can linger in people for months, that it can cause severe lung scarring, and that even young people can die from it. But we’re talking about rates of death here. Tom Frieden, former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, agrees that those death rates are likely to be lower.
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