My level of distrust is high

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

3. That's plausible, but I don't think Trump is a strategic thinker.

And even if he was, such a strategy is obviously dangerous and stupid and likely to lead to a result that he doesn't want - as seems to be happening already. In any event, he can't suspend the election; the date is baked into the Constitution and a federal statute. Even declaring martial law wouldn't allow him to do it. This point has been made here and elsewhere many times.

What Trump is doing, I think, is what he has always done: manufacturing his own "truth" to suit his own ends. He doesn't want there to be a pandemic because it is interfering with his re-election chances by damaging the economy - the only thing he still had going for him. So he's claiming, and acting as if, the virus is going away and it was never a big deal anyhow. He's just hoping enough people believe it to vote for him before the pandemic gets worse. And he's so crazy that he might even believe his own bullshit.