Ohio. Hmm . . . do you think reopening was a bit rushed? [View all]

[Ms. Toad]

Or, maybe, face masks should have been mandated?



A bit of explanation -

I calculate the rolling average as a retroactive rolling average (7 days ending on the current day). It helps smooth out the curve (since weekends are so different than weekdays), BUT it makes it harder to pinpoint when the actual uptick began, so to pinpoint the actual start of the climb I went back to the daily data - the last four new case days in the 300s were June 6-9; since those days included two weekend (lower) days, it is impossible to tell where the actual bottom was.

Days are the horizontal axis; daily new case average is the vertical axis

Day 23 (first black square on the horizontal axis) is May 21 - the day indoor seating at bars and restaurants was permitted
Day 27 is May 25 - Memorial day
Day 28 is May 26 - the day gyms, pools, fitness centers, and dance studios were permitted to open
Day 40 (red square on the h-axis) is June 7 -17 days after May 21, when bars and restaurants opened; 13 days after Memorial Day
Day 47 (2nd black square) is June 14 - the day the average rolling average started to reflect reflected the daily upswing that started around June 7