Trafalgar Group poll shows Trump leading slightly in Wisconsin. Talk me down. [View all]
The same outfit has Biden leading by only one point in Michigan this week (whereas most other pollsters have Biden well ahead in Michigan): https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/
Before anyone dismisses it outright as a conservative pollster with a C-rating from 538, Trafalgar gained notoriety for being one of the few to correctly predict Trump would win Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016, as well as a few other state-level polls, such as Florida. According to my reading, they are designed to use questions to get at voters' psychology as well as short polls to incorporate more people who might not otherwise participate in the process.
I dread another scenario where the polls we've been taking as gospel turn out to be wrong, and there are outfits like Trafalgar who apparently have something unbeknownst to us figured out. I can't live through another election night like 2016 again.
Is there something in Trafalgar's work this year that is skewing it toward Trump? Anybody smarter at statistics than I care to take a whack at this? It is wild to me that some polls can show Biden leading in Wisconsin by 10, while ones like this show him losing by one or two. *Somebody* is wrong.
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