Did Bloomberg lie to us all?

[JonLP24]

62. I think we win the house either way

The Trump party is too far to the right and they lost a lot of those suburban voters. The Trump party denies climate change while the environment as well as gun control are important to the newly picked up voters.

This is a study from a political scientist

Study: Biden can unite progressives and swing voters with a focus on climate

The environment is the biggest driver of doubts about Trump among his wavering supporters.

Most of the people who voted for Donald Trump in 2016 tell pollsters they’re firmly backing his reelection this fall. But elections are won by margins. And the relatively small number of Trump voters — about 10 percent, according to the Cooperative Congressional Election Survey — who say they’re at least considering casting a vote for the Democratic nominee are a critical slice of the population to understand.

And a new study, provided to Vox by Tufts University political scientists Brian Schaffner and Laurel Bliss and Data for Progress executive director Sean McElwee, argues that climate change could be the key for Democrats hoping to woo these voters.

This is a matter that should be of some concern to Joe Biden in particular, as the wavering Trump voters are disproportionately young and the youth vote has not exactly been Biden’s strong suit. But while these voters take conservative positions on some issues, their ideas on climate are largely aligned with those of the Democratic Party base and with stances Biden himself has already taken.

Who the wavering Trump voters are
Trump voters who’ve lost confidence in the president are an electorally critical demographic, but it’s also a small group of people — just around 10 percent of the approximately 46 percent of voters who pulled the lever for Trump in 2016. The CCES is an ideal tool to study those voters because it’s a large survey, with 19,000 responses, that can still generate statistically useful information about small sub-groups.

https://www.vox.com/2020/4/2/21201825/biden-climate-swing-voters-progressives-2020-election

Trump is probably the biggest reason why we picked up the house.