538 clip: Confidence Interval: Democrats Could Win 60 Seats In The Senate

[Awsi Dooger]

7. I agree with the low number

Federal races are decided on ideology, far beyond governorships which are more prone to flip parties. We are chasing too many senate seats in states with 40+% conservatives. I realize nobody appreciates it but the polling is not as reliable during that scenario. The fundamentals tend to dictate.

Maybe we can pull out one or two of those. We are not going to sweep the board against a lineup of states with 40-45% conservatives. I remember posting the same thing when I joined this site in 2002. There was a thread declaring, "My Dream Scenario in the Senate." The guy had us winning every race in red states, despite huge stacks of conservatives lined up against us, and a national security theme sweeping the nation after 9/11. I remember I got chastised as misguided in that thread for listing the percentage of conservatives in each state. But it held up, and it holds up 18 years later, and it will hold up decade after decade.

I'm still ticked at Bill Nelson for being so lazy and seemingly unconcerned during 2018. That was basically a giveaway. Gillum took both races lower than they should have been but if Nelson had gotten going earlier and devoted any emphasis to the Hispanic vote he probably could have squeaked out a razor tight win, leaving us one seat closer.