General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Some Good News From Sturgis [View all]PatrickforO
(15,533 posts)Well, I'm just not a Sturgis kind of guy anyway. Last 'bike' I ever owned was a minibike when I was 15, but then my parents VERY wisely refused to allow me to get a motorcycle.
But look at this crowd. We're probably looking at at least 6,500 deaths just in this group, let alone the people they all infect. Probably more.
If you do the simple division, about 3.7% of the cases die. And, again according to the recent Indian study, if one COVID-positive person can infect an additional 46 people without social distancing or masks, as these people are, then it would take only 5,400 positive people in this group to infect the whole quarter million.
We could even be conservative and say that if only 75% of people will get the virus anyway, it would be around 185,000 people. Assuming the 3.7% morbidity rate, we can say that, FOR JUST THIS GROUP, around 6,800 will die.
It isn't just them, though, because after Sturgis, they will all go home, to their churches, to their stores, to their workplaces, and they will infect more people. Those people will infect yet more people, and so on.
The gift that keeps on giving, much like drug-resistant tertiary syphilis - but Trump's condition is a different conversation...