2016 vs now

[Drunken Irishman]

2. The biggest difference between 2016 & now came down to undecided voters & third party voters.

There were a lot more of 'em, so, any Clinton lead was suspect. We just assumed that, eventually, those undecided voters would break for Clinton. In fact, they either broke for Trump or voted third party.

On this day in 2016, Clinton led Trump, on average, 47.2-41.8.

That's a pretty solid margin (5.4 points). But that meant 11% of the vote was either undecided or committed to a third party candidate. Clinton was also three-points below 50% nationally.

Between this point, and the election day, Clinton would see some growth in her lead (a few times, but most specifically, after the Access Hollywood tape) but only led by 48+ points nationally 18 times. between Aug. 23 and election day. Most of the rest of the campaign, including the final day of the election, Clinton was polling below 48%.

Currently, Biden leads 50-42.4 over Trump for a margin of 7.6. Not only is his margin basically two points better than Clinton - he's polling three-points better than her 47%. More importantly, only 7.6% are either undecided or voting third party. That's significant, especially since it means Biden is basically at a majority already.

But the biggest take away is that the last time Biden was averaging lower than 48% nationally was all the way back on May 26th.

Essentially three months ago.

Biden has consistently polled higher than Clinton did by a large margin.

In fact, he has only dipped below 49% once since that time (and it was still 48.7, so barely below it).

Trump is in a bad spot. Especially since undecided voters are likely to break more toward Biden according to polls. If the election were today, Biden would likely win the undecided vote by 60 or so percent and the national popular vote by 54% to Trump's 43%.