General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: New ABC News/IPSOS Poll: GOP Convention Backfires As Trump Approval Drops With Republicans [View all]underpants
(182,795 posts)and that 538 doesnt even use
Trumps alternate-reality bounce
If a spree of Sunday-morning retweets are anything to go by, however, Trump is a believer in the bounce and in the ABC/Ipsos results being an outlier. The president boosted tweets and analysis from right-wing Twitter account @PollWatch2020 more than twenty times, including polls from the Democracy Institute and the Trafalgar Group showing him winning nationally and in key swing states.
Theres plenty of reason to be doubtful of those numbers, though: The Trafalgar Group gets a C- in FiveThirtyEights pollster ratings, and the Democracy Institute isnt even listed.
Also of concern is the fact both groups numbers fly in the face of just about everything else out there in Michigan, for example, Bidens average lead stands at 7.1 percentage points, and that includes the Trafalgar poll that shows Trump winning. In fact, Trafalgar has the only FiveThirtyEight-recognized poll this month to show Trump winning by any margin in the state.
This isnt the first time Trump has rejected reality as presented by reputable pollsters:
But trying to quash polls that dont look good for your campaign isnt a great reelection strategy, especially when most of the polls are in consistent agreement. In the key swing states of Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Biden still retains a lead, one mirrored in national polls.
https://www.vox.com/2020/8/30/21407646/trump-approval-poll-rnc-abc-news-ipsos