General Discussion

Drunken Irishman

(34,857 posts)

24. Absolutely false that national polls are meaningless.

Mon Aug 31, 2020, 05:00 PM

Aug 2020

Obviously state polls provide a better insight but national polls provide a narrative that should never be ignored. The fact the polls nationally were close in 2016 was an indicator of a more serious problem that eventually came to light on election day - Hillary was struggling to get the votes needed from those who didn't support Trump.

The fact is, if Biden won the popular vote by 15 points, or even 10 points, it's mathematically improbable he loses the Electoral College.

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New Emerson poll out has Biden leading 51-49 nationally. [View all] Drunken Irishman Aug 2020 OP

Well that's not going to do it. dem4decades Aug 2020 #1

No other president would have numbers this good NewsCenter28 Aug 2020 #3

No other President had the idiot horde either. dem4decades Aug 2020 #4

You sound very excited by this Awsi Dooger Aug 2020 #31

Hmmmm DemocratSinceBirth Aug 2020 #36

The freakout comes in 3..2..1.. tman Aug 2020 #2

Deserved freakout Iwasthere Aug 2020 #7

Debbie Downers are concerned. LW1977 Aug 2020 #19

LOL, ok! nt USALiberal Aug 2020 #22

Deserved freakout Iwasthere Aug 2020 #28

Amazing. Zeus69 Aug 2020 #5

America: WTF. 49%. AleksS Aug 2020 #6

so this strikes me as pushing leaners to a binary choice qazplm135 Aug 2020 #8

That's pretty depressing bif Aug 2020 #9

No he won't. Please stop. Demsrule86 Aug 2020 #13

He might if he cheats. musicblind Aug 2020 #44

Yes, that was enough to get 538's margin... regnaD kciN Aug 2020 #10

Yet, It's Still 7% ProfessorGAC Aug 2020 #15

But now we need to fight to get it back up to 8.6 and beyond. musicblind Aug 2020 #46

It gives Trump 19% of the Black vote...no way in hell...and this is an outlier. Demsrule86 Aug 2020 #11

I'm AA and I feel that way. However, I had two relatives helpisontheway Aug 2020 #21

Emerson has been AWFUL for months budkin Aug 2020 #12

"Biden leads Trump 79% to 18% among Democratic voters" Yavin4 Aug 2020 #14

Some of us have been saying this for awhile. The polls of "registered voters" showing 15 point leads Azathoth Aug 2020 #16

Those 13-15 point margins are an insult and should never be touted Awsi Dooger Aug 2020 #32

Read this thread to understand why Emerson is shit right now. budkin Aug 2020 #17

Good info. They apparently also use 2016 turnout models. Drunken Irishman Aug 2020 #20

49% for Trump? No way. n/t Laelth Aug 2020 #18

This in ONE poll. 538 has Biden 50.2 Trump 43.1 octoberlib Aug 2020 #23

Absolutely false that national polls are meaningless. Drunken Irishman Aug 2020 #24

The problem is that 538 has this pollster rated A-, so it shifted Biden's lead down 1+ points budkin Aug 2020 #25

Yeah, this pollster won't include Emerson in his aggregates because of their polling methods octoberlib Aug 2020 #29

Considering how far ahead Biden is in the edhopper Aug 2020 #26

538 has issues this cycle... Tones2345 Aug 2020 #27

what are these landline only polls that are being used to the point they skew results? Celerity Aug 2020 #35

Just asking, if you know it's an outlier, don't agree and it's already been posted ,why post it? Thekaspervote Aug 2020 #30

Why are you asking a weird question? Drunken Irishman Aug 2020 #33

As mentioned it was just a question. If you think it weird so be it Thekaspervote Aug 2020 #41

It wasn't a question. Drunken Irishman Aug 2020 #45

Post removed Post removed Aug 2020 #34

lmao why do you lie? Drunken Irishman Aug 2020 #38

Per bullshit beachbumbob Aug 2020 #37

This election will be extremely close. Oneironaut Aug 2020 #39

Another explanation on Emerson's terrible data collection methods budkin Aug 2020 #40

Thx.. bookmarking for later .. big fan of the Economist. One of the best out there!! Thekaspervote Aug 2020 #42

It's not in the bag. musicblind Aug 2020 #43

They predict the turnout according to 2016 turnout. RDANGELO Aug 2020 #47

I think basing turnout models off of midterm elections is just as risky... Drunken Irishman Aug 2020 #49

I'm not saying they should do that, RDANGELO Aug 2020 #51

Emerson is no longer a highly rated poll Castiel Aug 2020 #48

No way in hell is Trump going to get anywhere near 49% n/t Blaukraut Aug 2020 #50

Sketchy methodology. BlueWavePsych Aug 2020 #52