General Discussion

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)

32. Those 13-15 point margins are an insult and should never be touted

Mon Aug 31, 2020, 05:31 PM

Aug 2020

538 should never use them. They are worse than anything Rasmussen has ever produced.

I have no idea how anyone can live in this country in this era and believe this is anywhere near a 13 point race

The USC Dornslife poll in particular should never be mentioned again. It's like trying to pretend a 50 meter head start in a 100 meter race

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New Emerson poll out has Biden leading 51-49 nationally. [View all] Drunken Irishman Aug 2020 OP

Well that's not going to do it. dem4decades Aug 2020 #1

No other president would have numbers this good NewsCenter28 Aug 2020 #3

No other President had the idiot horde either. dem4decades Aug 2020 #4

You sound very excited by this Awsi Dooger Aug 2020 #31

Hmmmm DemocratSinceBirth Aug 2020 #36

The freakout comes in 3..2..1.. tman Aug 2020 #2

Deserved freakout Iwasthere Aug 2020 #7

Debbie Downers are concerned. LW1977 Aug 2020 #19

LOL, ok! nt USALiberal Aug 2020 #22

Deserved freakout Iwasthere Aug 2020 #28

Amazing. Zeus69 Aug 2020 #5

America: WTF. 49%. AleksS Aug 2020 #6

so this strikes me as pushing leaners to a binary choice qazplm135 Aug 2020 #8

That's pretty depressing bif Aug 2020 #9

No he won't. Please stop. Demsrule86 Aug 2020 #13

He might if he cheats. musicblind Aug 2020 #44

Yes, that was enough to get 538's margin... regnaD kciN Aug 2020 #10

Yet, It's Still 7% ProfessorGAC Aug 2020 #15

But now we need to fight to get it back up to 8.6 and beyond. musicblind Aug 2020 #46

It gives Trump 19% of the Black vote...no way in hell...and this is an outlier. Demsrule86 Aug 2020 #11

I'm AA and I feel that way. However, I had two relatives helpisontheway Aug 2020 #21

Emerson has been AWFUL for months budkin Aug 2020 #12

"Biden leads Trump 79% to 18% among Democratic voters" Yavin4 Aug 2020 #14

Some of us have been saying this for awhile. The polls of "registered voters" showing 15 point leads Azathoth Aug 2020 #16

Those 13-15 point margins are an insult and should never be touted Awsi Dooger Aug 2020 #32

Read this thread to understand why Emerson is shit right now. budkin Aug 2020 #17

Good info. They apparently also use 2016 turnout models. Drunken Irishman Aug 2020 #20

49% for Trump? No way. n/t Laelth Aug 2020 #18

This in ONE poll. 538 has Biden 50.2 Trump 43.1 octoberlib Aug 2020 #23

Absolutely false that national polls are meaningless. Drunken Irishman Aug 2020 #24

The problem is that 538 has this pollster rated A-, so it shifted Biden's lead down 1+ points budkin Aug 2020 #25

Yeah, this pollster won't include Emerson in his aggregates because of their polling methods octoberlib Aug 2020 #29

Considering how far ahead Biden is in the edhopper Aug 2020 #26

538 has issues this cycle... Tones2345 Aug 2020 #27

what are these landline only polls that are being used to the point they skew results? Celerity Aug 2020 #35

Just asking, if you know it's an outlier, don't agree and it's already been posted ,why post it? Thekaspervote Aug 2020 #30

Why are you asking a weird question? Drunken Irishman Aug 2020 #33

As mentioned it was just a question. If you think it weird so be it Thekaspervote Aug 2020 #41

It wasn't a question. Drunken Irishman Aug 2020 #45

Post removed Post removed Aug 2020 #34

lmao why do you lie? Drunken Irishman Aug 2020 #38

Per bullshit beachbumbob Aug 2020 #37

This election will be extremely close. Oneironaut Aug 2020 #39

Another explanation on Emerson's terrible data collection methods budkin Aug 2020 #40

Thx.. bookmarking for later .. big fan of the Economist. One of the best out there!! Thekaspervote Aug 2020 #42

It's not in the bag. musicblind Aug 2020 #43

They predict the turnout according to 2016 turnout. RDANGELO Aug 2020 #47

I think basing turnout models off of midterm elections is just as risky... Drunken Irishman Aug 2020 #49

I'm not saying they should do that, RDANGELO Aug 2020 #51

Emerson is no longer a highly rated poll Castiel Aug 2020 #48

No way in hell is Trump going to get anywhere near 49% n/t Blaukraut Aug 2020 #50

Sketchy methodology. BlueWavePsych Aug 2020 #52