I read recently that some medical people have predicted 400,000 deaths [View all]

[MineralMan]

by the end of the year from COVID-19. Months ago, I wrote here on DU that as many as 3 million deaths might occur due to this virus in the United States when all was said and done. Roughly 1% of the population. For that, I was roundly slammed.

I repeat that now. I can still see that number of deaths occurring before the disease actually disappears. A vaccine might slow down the pace of COVID deaths, but it will not eliminate the count increasing. Many people are claiming that they will not take the vaccine, even people I consider to be more or less sensible about most things.

The pandemic will continue for quite some time. It will be measured in years, really, I believe. It's a novel virus. Most people have no immune reaction to it quickly enough to stop the disease from doing its damage. Sadly, once an effective vaccine is available, many people will see that as the end of the pandemic. That will not be the case.

The flu vaccine exists. Despite that, tens of thousands of Americans die each year from the flu. Our current vaccines are quite strain-specific, and we don't always predict which strain will be dominant. Many people, including otherwise sensible DUers refuse to be vaccinated, for one reason or another.

I expect the COVID-19 virus to continue to circulate in the USA and worldwide for 5 to 10 years, and cause infections virtually everywhere. People will continue to die. It is far from stupid to predict that 1% of the population could die from it, in the end.