Florida: A+ rated Marist poll

[Celerity]

68. We need to pick up a net 3 to get to 26, which is almost impossible, given the complete rundown

of all 50 delegations. I know it is based of 2020 results, that is why I gave you so much detail on the races in 2020.

If we do not flip MI-3, the Amash seat (and if we fail, then we do not flip MI-6, the Fred Upton district, the one where Biden fundraised for Upton in 2018 and he barely won, or we do not hold MI-8, where incumbent Dem Elissa Slotkin is in a toss-up with Paul Junge, the Rethug), we then need a plus 4 net to get to 26. IF we hold MI-8 and flip either MI-3 or MI-6 we still only need a net plus 3 to get to 26.

Pretty much the only path (if lose delegation control in MI and thus need a net plus 4) is to defend all the rest we have (the close ones being AZ (2 D seats in slight play), CO (we likely hold), MN (Collin Peterson (D) is in big trouble in MN-7, a ruby red district, if he loses we have absolutely zero path to 26), IA (we are in big trouble in IA-2, where we could lose a seat and thus the delegation,, Loebsack retired and the Rethug Mariannette Miller-Meeks is consistently leading Rita Hart, the Dem) NH (very likely we hold both), ME (Jared Golden in ME-2 should win, but it is not a lock), and NV (NV-3 and NV-4 are the two closest ones we are defending), all of which are states where one Rethug flip takes it away from us) plus we must also flip PA (it will come down to 2 R seats and 2 D seats in play), AK, FL (FL-15 is so key, but we also could flip it it, and still not gain the delegation if we lose FL-26, which is a toss-up and our incumbent Dem, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is trailing the Rethug, Carlos Giménez atm), and MT, non of which are easy at all, and certainly not guaranteed. That is literally a perfect sweep needed, one fuck up and we have zero chance, short of miracle flips in either WI or KS or both. IA-2 and MN-7 really worry me, as does FL-26.

RI and Vermont are one Rethug flip away from a tie (RI) or Rethug control (VT) but those 3 seats are rock solid Democratic.

The odds are really low we get to 26. Far below us re-taking the Senate (which is looking quite good IMHO) or Trump cheating his way to win in the POTUS race. Gerrymandering has just fucked us so hard over the past 2 decades (and I so worry about the 2020 census as well, on so so many levels, not just gerrymandering, but also the Electoral College and federal funding, etc.). We are defending so many House seats in purple, pinkish and even a few red districts, with many in key (delegation wise) states.