Does Biden have an Hispanic problem?

[Awsi Dooger]

28. I would say Democrats have done an excellent job maximizing Hispanic percentage since 2006

It really shouldn't be a 70-30 block, given all the diversity. But that's where it's been.

Logically the percentage had to revert toward prior norms. That is happening now, jumpstarted by Hispanic loyalty to a known quantity, the incumbent. The mistake was believing in 2018 that the children in cages issue would shove Hispanics further away from Trump. I remember Rachel Maddow emphasizing that repeatedly. She shouldn't be commenting on anything regarding political math because she has no idea what the hell she is talking about.

There were articles all over the place in early to late 2019, indicating the Trump and the GOP were prioritizing Hispanics toward 2020 and making inroads. I think Democratic campaigns slept on this possibility, just like the midwestern white working class shift was rumbled all over the place following the 2014 midterm but Hillary's camp didn't pay enough attention.

Here are some of those 2019 articles. I always save bookmarks like this, especially when they are related to a blatantly obvious situational scenario:

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/02/24/2020-hispanic-voters-donald-trump-225192

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/07/surge-in-hispanic-voters-could-have-major-impact-on-trump-re-election-bid.html

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2019/11/26/latinos-for-trump-supporters-hispanics-mexicans-attacks-immigrants-column/4224954002/

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/new-poll-latinos-reject-trump-democrats-have-work-do-n1039361

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Going forward, Democrats will never maintain 70-30 as dependable so given the lesser share of the Hispanic vote it is imperative to register and involve as many as possible, so the net vote advantage won't suffer as much, even if the percentage slips 5-10 points