While I am impressed by Lichtman's track record, and remain hopeful he's right, why are the international betting website still going for Trump as odds-on winner? There are many such websites to Google for this, but I chose this one because it factors in Trump's most recent blunders:
https://www.deccanchronicle.com/world/america/060920/biden-may-be-leading-the-polls-but-trump-is-tops-for-gamblers.html
Predictions of a Biden win won't change my skepticism. Maybe I'm still shell-shocked by the 2016 predictions of an easy Clinton win, but 2020 is unlike any election before it. During our entire history, we've never had a presidential incumbent so desperate to escape a well-deserved, lifelong prison sentence for his criminal behavior that his only remaining option is to be re-elected at all cost, no matter the criminal behavior needed to make it happen.
Experts and statisticians can crunch the probability data from now until doomsday, but if the result is decided by humans, as in 2000, no one can possibly predict the 2020 outcome. The only difference between now and 2000 is that the Biden side of the equation will absolutely not allow Biden to concede, even if he might want to. This time there's no backing down from the fight. Rather, it will be a concerted effort to challenge a Trump inconceivable win by putting voter boots on the ground in the streets all over America, to pressure Congress and the courts to do the right thing, as dictated by our Constitution, even if it means an untested but legal fight as dirty as the Repubs to get it done.
I still believe it's more important to flip the Senate and fortify the House because even if Trump manages to steal the election, impeachment and removal can be initiated on Inauguration Day, or even before. The new Congress reconvenes on January 4, 2021.
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