Biden's internals has him up 350 Electoral Votes

[Drunken Irishman]

21. You claimed states don't shift that quickly...

I was only pointing to Virginia as an example that shows it can happen. Sorry, but you didn't state, "most of the time..." you made a claim like it never happens. Virginia is an example of it happening.

Another example is Colorado, which may be a good example of what is in store for Arizona. While Colorado did go Democratic in 1992, the first time since 1964, it reverted back to the Republicans in 1996.

Dole won it by +1 in 1996
Bush won it by +8 in 2000
Bush won it by +5 in 2004
Obama won it by +9 in 2008

It's gone Democratic ever since and, like Virginia, it's a state Biden will likely win by double-digits this election.

But the shift was 14 points between 2004 & 2008.

Typically that's how these states shift: their shift takes place in a realigning election that favors one candidate by a significant margin than another. In 2004, Kerry did worse in the popular vote and EC than Gore four years ago but did better in Colorado and Virginia (well about the same). He didn't flip those states, though, because the national landscape wasn't enough to do so. But once they flipped, they became reliably blue states and it's becoming increasingly unlikely a Republican presidential nominee will win either.

Something similar happened with California, Vermont and New Hampshire in 1992. These three states, the latter two especially, were Republican leaning. Prior to Clinton's win in 1992, the last Democrat to win California in a presidential election was LBJ in 1964. But, like Arizona, it was still trending away from the Republicans. Despite Reagan seeing a surge of support between 1980 and 1984, his margin in California actually remained the same both elections (16), and then in 1988, his VP, won the state by only a little over three-points, despite an electoral college and popular vote blowout. But it wasn't enough to flip it...until Bill Clinton came along in 1992.

My point? The outliers and exceptions you suggest typically are how states flip from one party to the next. And it's a result of a lopsided election cycle that typically moves those states from soft Republican to Democratic. I think Arizona is ripe for that movement, as was Colorado in the 2000s and (to a lesser extent, New Mexico & Nevada).

Again, I don't think Biden leads by nine-plus, but it would not surprise me if he wins the state by 5%. That would only be an 8 point shift from 2016, less than Colorado and Virginia between 2004 and 2008.