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In reply to the discussion: Biden's internals has him up 350 Electoral Votes [View all]radius777
(3,635 posts)40. PA is clearly the most important state.
Newsweek: If We Don't Win in Pennsylvania, 'We Are So Screwed,' Biden Insider Says
The tipping point, sources within the campaign say, was a September 26 ABC News/Washington Post poll showing much softer support among the state's Biden voters than among those backing Trump. Echoing the campaign's own disquieting internal data, the survey found that, despite an overall nine-point lead for the former VP, only 51 percent of Biden backers were "very enthusiastic" about their candidate vs. 71 percent of those who supported Trump. That "rang the alarm," a top Biden insider says.
The tipping point, sources within the campaign say, was a September 26 ABC News/Washington Post poll showing much softer support among the state's Biden voters than among those backing Trump. Echoing the campaign's own disquieting internal data, the survey found that, despite an overall nine-point lead for the former VP, only 51 percent of Biden backers were "very enthusiastic" about their candidate vs. 71 percent of those who supported Trump. That "rang the alarm," a top Biden insider says.
It's a state with the mail-in voting uncertaintly, the registration of white rural voters being higher, etc. But we did win recent statewide races there, and are running a strong campaign (Lincoln Project running tough ads) there this time in a way that we did not last time. Biden was also born in PA and was the longtime Senator from a neighboring state.
But clearly there is something going on in the Sunbelt (AZ, TX, GA, NC). I could see a scenario where we win some of those states and for some crazy reason lose PA even though 538's 'snake' would indicate otherwise.
I just have a feeling Texas is going to shock the world. Biden is polling closer in TX than Trump polled in the Midwest last time. If there is a polling error in Biden's favor he could easily win Texas.
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Beat a horse dead, then beat a dead horse. I ain't stopping till the Trump presidency is gone.
dem4decades
Oct 2020
#11
Yeah what is crazy is VA really was only a battleground for two Presidential elections.
Statistical
Oct 2020
#13
I addressed your point that states never shift Democratic that quickly.
Drunken Irishman
Oct 2020
#29
AZ has been movimg to purple for quite some time. Sinema beat McSally for senate
Vivienne235729
Oct 2020
#34
The right wing echo chamber seems to be the only ones carrying on about it.
dem4decades
Oct 2020
#18
It was in their grassroots session yesterday with the campaign manager.
Drunken Irishman
Oct 2020
#22
There is no source. It was pulled from a video with Jen O'Malley Dillon, Biden's campaign manager...
Drunken Irishman
Oct 2020
#31