My State by State Projections

[Rule of Claw]

7. Thanks.

Baseline white vote needed in GA is 29 right now he is mid-thirties.

34 in Texas. I expect the final break to be against the incumbent. I also expect Joe to take the big four of Big D, Dallas and Tarrant huge, Collin and Denton in shockers.

But it is close.

But I have looked at polling and what stood out the most was that Texas polls showed a more white electorate than 2016 even, and no information about the vote agrees with that. But we do know Latinos in the valley are Spanish speaking and hard to reach.

The other factor is that in 2018 Cruz underperformed polls by 2.4 percent. Mix that with high energy, swinging suburbs, and highly educated voter shifts in DFW exurbs I come up with Joe by 3.