Is RealClearPolitics trying to make things looks tighter in Pennsylvania??

[Drunken Irishman]

9. RCP, warts and all, continues to prove fairly accurate...

Compare their final average in 2016 to 538's final projection:

In Pennsylvania, RCP had Clinton winning 46.8-44.7 (+2.1), while 538 had Clinton winning 48.9-45.2 (+3.7). Hillary lost 47.5 to 48.2. RCP underestimated Clinton's total by .7 points, while 538 overestimated Clinton's total by 1.4. RCP underestimated Trump by 3.5. 538 underestimated Trump by 3. So, RCP actually was .5 worse for Trump but more in line with Hillary's total than 538 in Pennsylvania.

In Wisconsin, RCP had Clinton winning 46.8-40.3 (+6.5), while 538 had Clinton winning 49.6-44.3 (+5.3). Hillary lost 46.5-47.2. So, the margins were closer than RCP's, which favored a bigger Clinton win. However, RCP overestimated Clinton's support by just .3 points, while 538 overestimated it by 3.1 points.

I hate to say it, but I'll default to RCP most the time because I think they've proven pretty accurate.

Case in point: the final RCP 2016 Florida average had Trump winning the state 48.6-47.4. He won it 47-46.6. 538 had Hillary a 55% favorite, and winning it 48.1-47.5. Close, of course, but 538 overestimated Hillary's support by 1.5, while RCP overestimated it by just .08.

RCP's average is pretty dang accurate, IMO, despite the crap it gets.