How to Identify a Biden Victory on Election Night, According to 538's Interactive Model. [View all]

[D23MIURG23]

Earlier this month James Carville weighed in on Biden's chances of victory - “Not only are we going to know election night. We’re going to know at 10:30 Eastern.”(1) That could well be true, but are there any signs of this we could look for on election night, prior to the Networks calling the race for Biden?

The analytics website fivethirtyeight.com just posted an interactive version of it's presidential election model.(2) The model allows you to pick the winner of various states, and shows you the effect that your pick has on the probability of a win for each candidate. I've spent some time exploring this model today and found some eastern and central states, which, if called for Biden make him a prohibitive favorite (win probability >= 98%). I'm also ignoring states that are tossups, in favor of the ones leaning towards Biden, since these are more likely to be called earlier in the night.

Here is what I found.

Single States whose loss would doom Trump:

Florida and North Carolina.

How likely is this: Florida is currently leaning Biden 71% : 29% and NC is a 68% favorite for Biden. IMO these are less likely to be called for Biden quickly, so they probably won't offer us much peace of mind, but the possibility is better here than in Georgia or Ohio, which are much closer races.

Biden's Knockout Combos:

PA + WI

PA + MI

PA + MN + NH

How likely is this: All of these states carry a pretty high probability of a Biden win. Here they are in order: PA (87%), NH (87%), WI (88%), MN (91%), MI (93%). These are all close to the probability that the model gives Biden of an Electoral College win. For a Biden win to be secured by these states passes the smell test, because this is where Trump won the election in 2016. In my opinion the states to watch on election night will be Michigan and Pennsylvania. If Biden wins both of those convincingly, Trump's goose is probably cooked.

Let's make it happen! GOTV!




(1)https://thehill.com/homenews/media/520861-carville-predicts-biden-will-quickly-be-declared-winner-not-going-to-be-close
(2)https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/