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Hassin Bin Sober

(27,424 posts)

7. Well that is a little disconcerting.

Wed Oct 21, 2020, 12:42 PM

Oct 2020

Biden’s only up a couple in Florida. I always figured being up only a couple in Florida wasn’t enough to overcome the old fanatics. According to this simulation if Florida goes red so does Arizona and North Carolina. Then it’s a race.

On the plus side is Biden is way ahead in the national polls. That should help “put the thumb on the scale” of these closer races.

538 has Biden winning 87 out of 100. I’ll stick with that number.

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538 Election Simulator [View all] Zeus69 Oct 2020 OP

That's cool. I plugged in Ohio to go to Biden which I think is possible captain queeg Oct 2020 #1

So foes Iowa grantcart Oct 2020 #3

Monmouth Iowa Biden 51 Trump 46 grantcart Oct 2020 #4

This is indeed cool. We're in good shape if we merely lock up our solid states unblock Oct 2020 #2

But if you give Florida to trump it changes Arizona to trump? Is that correct? Hassin Bin Sober Oct 2020 #5

Interesting! The states aren't completely independent random variables unblock Oct 2020 #6

Well that is a little disconcerting. Hassin Bin Sober Oct 2020 #7

Give Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin to Biden and Donnie has very little chance unblock Oct 2020 #8

Yeah, then it looks a lot more like 2016 Hassin Bin Sober Oct 2020 #9