npr: Georgia seeing surge in black voter turnout

[Awsi Dooger]

4. It needs to pick up the pace

I have been following this specific category every day. Biden needs to black vote to be 30% of the total in Georgia. That's what it was in 2016 and 2018. Abrams did a great job for blacks to reach 30% in a midterm.

But if it falls to 27% or 28% this year, Biden needs a significantly greater percentage of the white vote, which may not be feasible in Georgia. So far the black vote is 27.6% among total votes and 26.4% among in-person early votes.

That is not going to cut it. For all the high profile talk about Miami-Dade turnout, there are right wing turnout chirpers online who have been more focused on black turnout rate in Georgia and North Carolina, and Hispanic turnout rate in North Carolina. None of them are matching prior levels, or what Biden needs.

But I have not followed voting patterns in those states previously, to understand if the black vote and Hispanic vote typically comes out late. The Hispanic percentage in North Carolina is really low, at only 2.2%. Biden needs that to reach 5%. Some poll models like Marist have been using 6%.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/GA.html

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/NC.html