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Amishman

(5,923 posts)

25. The race could very well be tighter but the chances of success are not lower

Reply to Algernon Moncrieff (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2020, 01:56 PM

Oct 2020

I think the very high turnout will cause states to 'run home' to their underlying partizan advantage.

This puts Texas, Iowa, Ohio, and Georgia as unlikely to go blue.

At the same time, this makes states where we have an underlying numeric advantage (MI, PA, WI, NV) even safer than the polls suggest.

The most important part is we don't need anything beyond those favorable states to win, the pubs absolutely do.

That being said, I think we win the lion's share of the swingiest of swing states (FL, NC, AZ) very narrowly with independents breaking for Biden and putting us over the top.

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Is the race really closer than we think...or not? [View all] Algernon Moncrieff Oct 2020 OP

Yes. No. Cirque du So-What Oct 2020 #1

Polling is meaningless robbob Oct 2020 #11

225,000 dead and counting, Mr Comey. Iggo Oct 2020 #20

I suspect there are far more "shy Biden" voters than shy Trump voters... Wounded Bear Oct 2020 #2

You show an innate trust in America....... MyOwnPeace Oct 2020 #17

In 2016 it was different Algernon Moncrieff Oct 2020 #24

The default position is that the polls are just about right Shermann Oct 2020 #3

It's ALWAYS closer than we think. And there's an explanation. Goodheart Oct 2020 #4

There is truth to that. A lot of people hate Trump Algernon Moncrieff Oct 2020 #12

Just Vote, and Bring Others to the Polls to Vote. MineralMan Oct 2020 #5

I suspect pollsters over-compensated after 2016. Laelth Oct 2020 #6

Rachel Bitcofer has said that they Bettie Oct 2020 #16

I think it's going to be Blowout City. ooky Oct 2020 #7

The only unknown is new voters qazplm135 Oct 2020 #8

Trump will get creamated by an historical margin. nt Binkie The Clown Oct 2020 #9

Yes he will get "creamated" Shermann Oct 2020 #13

I think the Biden/Harris leads might be a bit larger... Buckeye_Democrat Oct 2020 #10

You've met the burden of proof Shermann Oct 2020 #14

Maybe. I hope so! Buckeye_Democrat Oct 2020 #15

Yup n/t obamanut2012 Oct 2020 #21

I choose Maru Kitteh Oct 2020 #18

Acting like Biden is 2 points down with a lot of people yet to vote is the right idea Algernon Moncrieff Oct 2020 #23

How about the "shy" Biden voters? mcar Oct 2020 #19

Biden wins by 20 million votes, not a close election. GOP knows and we know beachbumbob Oct 2020 #22

The race could very well be tighter but the chances of success are not lower Amishman Oct 2020 #25

I think Trump is getting stomped but... lame54 Oct 2020 #26

2016, 2018, 2020 Delarage Oct 2020 #27

Trump will have the most votes in history cast against him Generic Brad Oct 2020 #28