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DeminPennswoods

(17,547 posts)

43. Did anyone else find it odd

Reply to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2020, 08:15 PM

Oct 2020

that 5% of voters had already voted and chose not to tell the pollster for whom they voted?

The poll went from 47-47 (94) to 48-41 (89) and Trump picked up only 1 pt of that 6 point drop? (Coincidentally, the difference is 5%.) Yet, the pollster claims opinions are set and unlikely to change.

Based on this, https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/iowa/articles/2020-10-23/early-voting-in-iowa-at-record-pace-with-several-days-left, I'm going to go out on the limb a little bit and say that this poll captured a good snapshot of the election day in person vote.

BTW, final PA polls have been released by Franklin and Marshall and Muhlenberg, the two well-respected Pennsylvania polls. FandM had Biden +5, Muhlenberg +4, along with Quinnipiac that had it at +6.

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DMR: Iowa Poll: Donald Trump takes over lead in Iowa as Joe Biden fades [View all] Drunken Irishman Oct 2020 OP

WTH is happening?!!!!!!! n/t tormadjax Oct 2020 #1

Fuck RandySF Oct 2020 #2

it's a poll in a lily white state nt msongs Oct 2020 #3

That Des Moines Register poll exboyfil Oct 2020 #4

Sigh... Jamesyu Oct 2020 #5

No surprise . . . Iliyah Oct 2020 #6

Definitely a surprise. Drunken Irishman Oct 2020 #8

Well there are no other collapse numbers, right? mvd Oct 2020 #13

I mean, he went from 47 points to 41 so, he dropped six-points. Drunken Irishman Oct 2020 #14

That is strange and even more shows how it is just one poll mvd Oct 2020 #20

Good pollster but still could be an outlier grantcart Oct 2020 #22

No surprise?! PTWB Oct 2020 #29

I suspect I know why, but I don't want to get a hide so I will keep it to myself still_one Oct 2020 #7

See post# 3? nt zackymilly Oct 2020 #27

Wasn't counting on Iowa redstateblues Oct 2020 #9

Neither was I but a seven-point deficit likely means the Midwest isn't quite locked up. Drunken Irishman Oct 2020 #11

Umm did you see those CNN Midwest polls today Proud liberal 80 Oct 2020 #16

Yes. And those are good. Drunken Irishman Oct 2020 #19

Lol Clinton was criticized for doing what Biden is doing now Proud liberal 80 Oct 2020 #23

I think you mean she was criticized for NOT doing what Biden is doing now, campaigning in still_one Oct 2020 #30

Yes I did thanks Proud liberal 80 Oct 2020 #36

You explained well in the body of your post proud liberal still_one Oct 2020 #38

This isn't true, either. Drunken Irishman Oct 2020 #45

B+ triron Oct 2020 #50

That isn't the poll CNN uses anymore. Drunken Irishman Oct 2020 #51

And Trump is still not at 50 percent nt Wanderlust988 Oct 2020 #10

He wasn't at 50% in the final 2016 Iowa poll, either... Drunken Irishman Oct 2020 #12

Why are you people freaking out Proud liberal 80 Oct 2020 #15

People are antsy because it's a very good poll and Biden isn't doing much better than Hillary. Drunken Irishman Oct 2020 #17

Iowa doesn't have a Proud liberal 80 Oct 2020 #18

Right. And western Iowa is basically South Dakota. Buckeyeblue Oct 2020 #26

2016 showed us it doesn't matter if you have a Detroit, Philadelphia, Cleveland or Milwaukee. Drunken Irishman Oct 2020 #28

You're extrapolating waaay too much off of one poll coti Oct 2020 #24

It is because the Seltzer poll is the gold standard in Iowa still_one Oct 2020 #33

Not really. Drunken Irishman Oct 2020 #40

Why does this surprise anyone? IA was never gonna go to Biden, nor OH Thekaspervote Oct 2020 #21

This message was self-deleted by its author NewsCenter28 Oct 2020 #25

Ok Proud liberal 80 Oct 2020 #34

WI and IA are similar. PTWB Oct 2020 #41

NOT. triron Oct 2020 #52

NOT. PTWB Oct 2020 #54

Dodgy poll, too swingy and frankly she aint that convinced of her own numbers in it. sunonmars Oct 2020 #31

It was the same four years ago... Drunken Irishman Oct 2020 #42

Post removed Post removed Oct 2020 #32

What Are You Talking About Aepps22 Oct 2020 #39

Amazing that Trump could totally fuck up the state's #1 industry - farming icwlmuscyia Oct 2020 #35

But they hate socialism! smirkymonkey Oct 2020 #49

I think they oversampled Republicans. Ernst is also suddenly up. yellowcanine Oct 2020 #37

Did anyone else find it odd DeminPennswoods Oct 2020 #43

Have to say Iowa has lot of stupid people-If they swung for Trump kansasobama Oct 2020 #44

Not putting much stock in this. LiberalFighter Oct 2020 #46

Nate Silver says: shrike3 Oct 2020 #47

No doubt there are outliers and this could be one DeminPennswoods Oct 2020 #55

Crosstabs? Sampling details? triron Oct 2020 #48

Stop. Just stop mcar Oct 2020 #53

It's not good news but Turin_C3PO Oct 2020 #56

I don't believe the change in the independents. Biden up 12 in September is now suddenly ooky Oct 2020 #57

The poll was dead on correct again exboyfil Nov 2020 #58

My concern was this showing Biden's support in the Midwest/Rustbelt wasn't as strong... Drunken Irishman Nov 2020 #59