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beachbumbob

(9,263 posts)

6. the problem with extrapolation from party affiliation records is it glosses over the crossover votes

Sun Nov 1, 2020, 09:50 AM

Nov 2020

We know for a FACT that in 2016 a substantial number of registered democrats voted for Trump in Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania. Of this group of people, we can believe that in 2020 many would come back for Biden. On the otherhand in 2020. WE KNOW there will be crossover votes from trump to Biden by registered republicans and this number can be significant in states like Florida and Arizona where the 60 and over GOP voter has figured out that trump is more than willing to see them fucking DIE to COVID.

We also KNOW that younger voters register in greater numbers as " Unaffiliated", we also KNOW the majority of this demographic DO NOT support GOP/Trump agenda

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Florida update -It is dependent on independents [View all] kansasobama Nov 2020 OP

Florida rso Nov 2020 #1

I think I read that the tradition of "souls to the poll" event is scheduled today Claustrum Nov 2020 #2

Nope. lark Nov 2020 #10

Thanks for the correction n/t Claustrum Nov 2020 #12

The poster is wrong. Most big Florida counties ARE voting today until 8pm. Blue_true Nov 2020 #35

No, we can vote today obamanut2012 Nov 2020 #19

Only some counties closed yesterday, not all kansasobama Nov 2020 #26

Orange and Hillsborough are voting today until 8pm. nt Blue_true Nov 2020 #36

I wanted to report this response Nimble_Idea Nov 2020 #28

Oh come on now, I was 1000% not doing this maliciously. lark Nov 2020 #43

It is up to the county mcar Nov 2020 #31

My red county ended yesterday. The massive counties are voting today. nt Blue_true Nov 2020 #37

There is voting today in a number of big counties. Blue_true Nov 2020 #32

Please correct your post! flamingdem Nov 2020 #38

Sorry about that lark Nov 2020 #39

Thanks Lark! flamingdem Nov 2020 #41

Sorry about that lark Nov 2020 #40

We are able to vote today obamanut2012 Nov 2020 #20

Exactly. Fortunately Florida Democrats should know better. nt Blue_true Nov 2020 #33

My brother and his wife are in a red FL county, so haven't registered as OnDoutside Nov 2020 #3

Same with my sister and her boyfriend. lark Nov 2020 #11

He reckons he's gets less hassle by doing so, because so much info is public in FL. OnDoutside Nov 2020 #25

I have a friend whose husband is registered as Repug for that reason. lark Nov 2020 #44

Yeah that sort of thing, my brother bought his house from the guy who OnDoutside Nov 2020 #45

Nice! Rice4VP Nov 2020 #30

Obama going tomorrow? kansasobama Nov 2020 #4

I think independents being the deciders will be a wide pattern Amishman Nov 2020 #5

Good points made in your last paragraph. Blue_true Nov 2020 #34

the problem with extrapolation from party affiliation records is it glosses over the crossover votes beachbumbob Nov 2020 #6

Good point beachcomb kansasobama Nov 2020 #8

That poll relies on a 26 point swing from Biden to Trump by independents in one month ooky Nov 2020 #13

It's more believable than not beachbumbob Nov 2020 #23

On what basis? ooky Nov 2020 #24

Spot on! nt Phoenix61 Nov 2020 #9

I've said all along GOP are cannibalising ED votes as well in the EV. sunonmars Nov 2020 #7

How much of a lead do we usually have at this point? Nt helpisontheway Nov 2020 #14

"Numbers are giving me some worries." jcgoldie Nov 2020 #15

Rahm Emanuel said that no person has ever won the presidency losing the Independent voters. Autumn Nov 2020 #16

MIRT greenjar_01 Nov 2020 #17

Registration is only meaningful for primary elections Klaralven Nov 2020 #18

They also expect some older Republican voters concerned about Covid to switch over. nt Quixote1818 Nov 2020 #21

Here's what Dave Wasserman of Cook Political and Harry Enten of 538 say about trying to Thekaspervote Nov 2020 #22

I imagine Florida Democrats get more Democratic over time. David__77 Nov 2020 #27

You can't make any determination in Florida based upon party registration MoonlitKnight Nov 2020 #29

We don't need Independents!!! /sarcasm dustyscamp Nov 2020 #42