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The Magistrate

(96,043 posts)

8. The 538 Odds, Sir

Reply to LAS14 (Original post)

Mon Nov 2, 2020, 08:43 PM

Nov 2020

Are two in three, roughly. Twice in three times is a decent bet, but it it fails, one is not entitled to feel personally persecuted by the universe. It is roughly equivalent to betting dice rolled will come up a seven or less (21 out of 36 possible). Hence the pale tone....

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FiveThirtyEight vs CNN. Can someone explain why.... [View all] LAS14 Nov 2020 OP

Because CNN is only using their poll, 538 averages all polls. Nt Fiendish Thingy Nov 2020 #1

I don't know what John King uses for those numbers jcgoldie Nov 2020 #2

like karnacky, could be cherry picking to create a horse race mentality.... getagrip_already Nov 2020 #6

True. CNN doing the same. miyazaki Nov 2020 #13

He must have been playing around with it Proud liberal 80 Nov 2020 #3

Huh! Thanks! This is SO CONFUSING!!!! nt LAS14 Nov 2020 #5

Interesting. Biden could lose OH,PA,GA,FL & NC and still win the election Kaleva Nov 2020 #14

Horsie race. Statistical Nov 2020 #4

CNN trying to keep their Wellstone ruled Nov 2020 #7

The 538 Odds, Sir The Magistrate Nov 2020 #8

He plays with their map constantly. Buckeye_Democrat Nov 2020 #9

If it is a total route Timewas Nov 2020 #10

John King is not a poll aggregator..he's looking at one poll and making summations Thekaspervote Nov 2020 #11

Because they're trying to build intrigue whereas Silver is just analyzing data. BannonsLiver Nov 2020 #12