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Towlie

(5,580 posts) Thu Nov 5, 2020, 02:31 PM Nov 2020

Don't sell Nate Silver short! [View all]

Nate Silver is getting some criticism, but consider this:

It's currently 253 to 213 with Biden leading. Biden is favored in Nevada and Arizona for 6 + 11 = 17 votes, and there's a compelling argument that he'll win Pennsylvania for 20 more votes. If we assume that Trump will win North Carolina (15 votes) and Georgia (16 votes) it'll be Biden, 290 to 248.

Go to the fivethirtyeight.com map and put your mouse cursor on the right side of Joe Biden's chin (Joe's right, not yours).

Compare that little map to the one at CNN's website.

Also, Georgia is very close and could raise the win to 306 to 232. Amusingly, that's on the left side of Biden's chin!

So it seems to me that fivethirtyeight.com did a pretty good job!

31 replies

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Highlight:

Don't sell Nate Silver short! [View all] Towlie Nov 2020 OP

He can only work with the data and information he's given. BusyBeingBest Nov 2020 #1

I think people saw the 89 and thought it was in the bag. BannonsLiver Nov 2020 #2

Polls said Biden was 10% ahead Drahthaardogs Nov 2020 #6

Biden still might end up +6 nationally when all is said and done BannonsLiver Nov 2020 #12

yah, all the closet repubs....... a kennedy Nov 2020 #13

Nate Silver isn't a pollster. He analyses polls. yardwork Nov 2020 #14

He's a wannabe statistician. Mosby Nov 2020 #23

yah, all the closet repubs....... a kennedy Nov 2020 #16

I Think 538.com ended up Biden +8.4 Stallion Nov 2020 #19

sorry. i think polls are right. have been. will be. they track voter intentions. voter suppression bullimiami Nov 2020 #22

Ross Feingold in 2016. I'll never believe it. yardwork Nov 2020 #31

People are confusing certainty with speed. PubliusEnigma Nov 2020 #8

+1 Mike 03 Nov 2020 #17

And that 89 includes scenarios like the one playing out Amishman Nov 2020 #9

On 11/1, he also wrote an article: "I'm Here To Remind You That Trump Can Still Win" TwilightZone Nov 2020 #3

I think it was mostly OhZone Nov 2020 #4

He is not a pollster edhopper Nov 2020 #5

Or the suppression was terribly effective. lagomorph777 Nov 2020 #10

Yeah I thought about that too. But the polling error (not Nate's fault, he just reports) was at yellowcanine Nov 2020 #7

Even larger this time Amishman Nov 2020 #11

I don't blame him at all. clutterbox1830 Nov 2020 #15

You're missing my point! I'm saying there's nothing to blame him FOR because he wasn't wrong. Towlie Nov 2020 #20

If we are talking about Nate specifically then fine. Imperialism Inc. Nov 2020 #18

I think we will get Georgia too. And all the mail in held in post office is going to have an effect LizBeth Nov 2020 #21

So he ran 40,000 simulations and one of the 100 most likely simulations is similar meadowlander Nov 2020 #24

He's not betting; he's reporting probabilities Bonn1997 Nov 2020 #26

I appreciate that, meadowlander Nov 2020 #28

Fair enough :-) Bonn1997 Nov 2020 #30

What "bet"??? The point is that the presumed outcome is well within his probability distribution. Towlie Nov 2020 #29

Could be that polling was off because the turnout was badly underestimated standingtall Nov 2020 #25

We should THANK pollsters when polls are off Bonn1997 Nov 2020 #27