Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News Editorials & Other Articles General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

He can only work with the data and information he's given. BusyBeingBest Nov 2020 #1
I think people saw the 89 and thought it was in the bag. BannonsLiver Nov 2020 #2
Polls said Biden was 10% ahead Drahthaardogs Nov 2020 #6
Biden still might end up +6 nationally when all is said and done BannonsLiver Nov 2020 #12
yah, all the closet repubs....... a kennedy Nov 2020 #13
Nate Silver isn't a pollster. He analyses polls. yardwork Nov 2020 #14
He's a wannabe statistician. Mosby Nov 2020 #23
yah, all the closet repubs....... a kennedy Nov 2020 #16
I Think 538.com ended up Biden +8.4 Stallion Nov 2020 #19
sorry. i think polls are right. have been. will be. they track voter intentions. voter suppression bullimiami Nov 2020 #22
Ross Feingold in 2016. I'll never believe it. yardwork Nov 2020 #31
People are confusing certainty with speed. PubliusEnigma Nov 2020 #8
+1 Mike 03 Nov 2020 #17
And that 89 includes scenarios like the one playing out Amishman Nov 2020 #9
On 11/1, he also wrote an article: "I'm Here To Remind You That Trump Can Still Win" TwilightZone Nov 2020 #3
I think it was mostly OhZone Nov 2020 #4
He is not a pollster edhopper Nov 2020 #5
Or the suppression was terribly effective. lagomorph777 Nov 2020 #10
Yeah I thought about that too. But the polling error (not Nate's fault, he just reports) was at yellowcanine Nov 2020 #7
Even larger this time Amishman Nov 2020 #11
I don't blame him at all. clutterbox1830 Nov 2020 #15
You're missing my point! I'm saying there's nothing to blame him FOR because he wasn't wrong. Towlie Nov 2020 #20
If we are talking about Nate specifically then fine. Imperialism Inc. Nov 2020 #18
I think we will get Georgia too. And all the mail in held in post office is going to have an effect LizBeth Nov 2020 #21
So he ran 40,000 simulations and one of the 100 most likely simulations is similar meadowlander Nov 2020 #24
He's not betting; he's reporting probabilities Bonn1997 Nov 2020 #26
I appreciate that, meadowlander Nov 2020 #28
Fair enough :-) Bonn1997 Nov 2020 #30
What "bet"??? The point is that the presumed outcome is well within his probability distribution. Towlie Nov 2020 #29
Could be that polling was off because the turnout was badly underestimated standingtall Nov 2020 #25
We should THANK pollsters when polls are off Bonn1997 Nov 2020 #27
Latest Discussions»General Discussion»Don't sell Nate Silver sh...»Reply #13