In 7 to 10 days, when the cases and deaths spike from Thanksgiving

[Ms. Toad]

6. Symptoms will start for a lot tomorrow - but since tests are hard to come by

they won't really start showing up in the stats for a few days after that.

The timing of the start of a lot of symptoms is 2-3 days after exposure.

As for dodging a bullet - I'm having that conversation with my daughter. She was exposed 2 weeks ago - and I believe she now thinks she's invincible. She's headed to friends of the person who exposed her for a gathering that includes food. I begged her to wear a mask and socially distance. When I commented to her about dodging a bullet this time, and that she might not be so lucky next time, she started ranting about it making no sense if it is so contagious how she didn't get it this time.

So I dragged out some of the studies with diagrams to show her how ventilation might have made a difference (as one example of variation) - one asymptomatic person infected more than half of the people at tables in the direct line of the air conditioning flow - but none of the tables out of the direct line of flow. Then I dragged out the mutations that make COVID 19 more contagious and pointed out that the person she was exposed to might have had a less contagious version, and that she might not be so lucky next time.

She seemed convinced - but then, again, I wasn't aware of how much risk she was taking until 17 days ago (3 days before she was exposed). I'll just stick with my 24/7 masking until this thing is over.