Primarying Joe Manchin has to be the dumbest idea in the world.

[Celerity]

100. I have no idea why you are having a go at me with your usual moderates only need apply

stances. I have said over and over that Manchin is the only Dem who can win that WV Senate seat, primary him, beat him (I do not see that happening) and we lose the seat.

I never advocated a prog should primary any sitting Dem Senator in 2022, You have the wrong poster.

I have always understood that we need to be pragmatic in purple, pink, and reddish states and districts.

I do think that some on here take it too far the other way, and want to see centrists/moderates take out some of the higher profile progressives, progs who are in deep blue districts. Go back and look at the AOC 2020 primary threads. The anti-AOC comments (in terms of her being beaten by a string of failed candidates) did not age well at all.

The big tent works both ways. We are never going to be a party that is made up of only centrists across the board.

As for Manchin, I never said it was a lock he would jump parties at all, only that IF we lose the Senate in 2022 it is not an impossibility that he would considerate it IF certain other things occurred as well. Many miles to go, I doubt he switches, and we are all assuming that he runs for re-election, which may not happen either, although I am fairly sure he will run again.


As for 2022 in the Senate

OH - Portman retiring is a big deal, as now we at least have a shot at flipping it, especially if Ryan wins the primary.

NC (open seat) should be Jeff Jackson for us, I think he would have won in 2020, as well, instead of the disastrous Cunningham (sext scandal blew that seat).

PA is an open seat as well, and I think either John Fetterman, the sitting Lieutenant Governor, or the sitting AG, Josh Shapiro (if he runs) can win it. Tom Wolf, the current Governor, is not running for it.

The other Rethug seat that is pretty flippable is Johnson in WI. Mandela Barnes, the sitting Lieutenant Governor, would be a great candidate, and I hope he runs. If he doesn't, then it is wide open on our end from all that I see. Tom Nelson, formr majority leader in the Assembly, is running, and the sitting AG Josh Kaul might also run.

FL is tougher to flip (hopefully Ivanka Rump causes chaos for Rubio) but we have a slew of potential good candidates,

Charlie Crist, U.S. representative
Val Demings, U.S. representative (my choice)
Stephanie Murphy, U.S. representative
Ted Deutch, U.S. representative
Nikki Fried, Florida Commissioner of Agriculture
Gwen Graham, former U.S. representative and candidate for governor of Florida in 2018
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, former U.S. representative (lost in 2020, along with Shalala)


I terms of our at-risk seats, we have 3 and a half

The half is Kelly in AZ, as we dodged a bullet with Ducey refusing to run, plus the AZ Rethugs are imploding

that leaves 3 at risk

GA (Warnock) with Doug Collis perhaps his most likely opponent, and a horrid vote suppression scheme potentially rolling out to try and fuck us.

NV (Cortez Masto) Sandoval is by far the most dangerous potential opponent

NH (Hassan) Gov Crhis Sununu would be the toughest, and NH just went full Rethug trifecta at state level, as we lost both the state House and the state Senate in 2020, Ex US Kelly Ayotte might run as well.

The thing that worries me the most is our horrid record in the last two initial midterms (1994 and 2010) for a new Dem POTUS. We are in real danger in the House (35 to 45 or so at risk seats, although almost none of those are progressives in swing districts (and I doubt you will see any at risk Dem Reps primaried by actual legit, 'capable of wining the primary' candidates, none (in vulnerable districts) were in 2020 (at least nothing serious).

The only challenges were in the perfectly acceptable (for a primary challenge, and that is where me and you deffo disagree) deep blue seats. Multiple of them won, Jamal Bowman, Mondaire Jones (beat multiple centrists/moderates for Nita Loweys open, old seat), Cori Bush (mixed emotions on her, not that she beat too long serving (he and his father had that seat since the 1960's, and his district said it was time for new blood) Lacy Clay, but that she (Bush) has lose cannon potential), and also Marie Newman, who beat the RW Lipinski (RW on many things, plus his campaign falsely smeared Newman as anti Catholic and as a HOLOCAUST DENIER, ffs)-

We have a good deal more House seats we can lose in 2022 than ones we can flip back (a lot of those losses in 2020 for us were simply Red seats reverting to mean after the one-off Blue Wave of 2018).It is not a great position atm at all.

Finally, just so you are crystal clear as to my stance, there is only one Dem incumbent in congress I want to see primaried and beaten, One, that is it, now that Lipinski lost, Henry Cuellar, in safe blue seat, has never once be held by a Rethug, but he is the worst Dem (no one else is close) in Congress. Anti LGBTQ, forced birther, A- rated NRA favourite, pro drill baby drill, super pro private prisons, campaigns and fundraisers for racist climate change denier Rethug Jon Carter (Cuellar helped cost MJ Hegar that seat in 2018) against Democrats, and is anti immigrant far too often. Now, to show you that I understand how things work, we need a centrist, NOT a prog (like the last two challengers) to take hi on. All I ask is a person who actually supports our Democratic platform. Cuellar, other than voting for Pelosi, is barely a Dem.(in the Congress before the last one, Cellar voted with Trump and the Rethugs almost 70% of the time). All we need is a run of the mill moderate there who believes in in our platform and won't vote to take away my rights as both a member of the LGBTQ community, and as woman, which Cuellar does do.