I want to hear from the over 10,000 post people....

[grantcart]

23. Obama will get about 310 electoral votes

The President's campaign has invested tens of millions into the most massive get out the vote operation in history.

The polls, even the good ones, have to base their projections based on discounting the number of registered voters who are not going to vote. There is simply no way for them to guage a new pattern if a new model of GOTV is used. The higher the number of those voting the greater the margin of victory.

In the last 5 general elections the Democratic Party has won the popular vote 4 times. The only time that the popular vote was not in the Democrats favor was in 2004, in the middle of a hot war, and the American people have never changed Presidents in the middle of a hot war.

There is a conservative nature to the American people in that they prefer what they know than making an abrupt change without an overwhelming reason. In the end there will be a lot of middle of the road people who will simply vote for the incumbent rather than a challenger.

Finally the electoral college is a big advantage for us. The President has done an excellent job of spreading the battle lines so that they will have to spread their resources. In the last two weeks no one will be watching the ads and after the debates they will be watching a charismatic young President making the closing arguments before huge crowds. Gerald Ford came back from 30 points down and lost by a few points because while the American people may think that they don't like the incumbent they actually will root for the guy fighting for his job.

Then there is this. You cannot win the Presidency by being against something you actually have to be for something. Romney has no vision, no case and in the end no hope to win.