Why the New Hampshire results are bad news for Romney

[Pab Sungenis]

12. Not all of them. Some (I don't know which) are proportional, but...

the winning candidate needs 1,144 delegates to win the nomination. 1,099 of those will be selected after Louisiana on March 24th (which is the last of the forced-proportionals).

If Rick Perry lasts until the Texas primary on April 3rd (and I think he's pigheaded enough to do so) he'll deny Romney of 155 of those delegates, reducing the pool to 944. Whether Rick Santorum could win Pennsylvania's primary on April 24th could be in doubt but if he did that would take another 72 out of the pool. New York would probably go for Romney (unless the Teahadists organize as well against him as they did for Carl Paladino), Indiana is an open primary so who knows what the heck will happen there, and California likes to upset the apple cart some times.

40 delegates have been selected so far, of which Romney has 10. 13 out of 132 super-delegates are backing him as well, giving him 23.

1,015 more delegates will be picked before April, which with his current success rate could yield 315. So barring a Perry or Santorum withdrawal or an upset in Pennsylvania, Romney would pretty much need to win every primary except Texas and Pennsylvania after April 1st to take him over the top.