My favorite polling trend [View all]

[gcomeau]

https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/index.php?page=election

I've liked the Rand tracking poll all year. As opposed to other polling outfits they don't randomly call different people every time, and have their demographics shifting in unpredictable ways, did they oversample group X this week, etc...

They picked 3500 people at the beginning of July and then they poll the same people through the entire election. When those numbers move it's because of people changing their minds about something. It shows real movement.

Obama just moved back up into the lead outside the 95% confidence interval, up by over 4.5 points. He's been rocketing up the last 4 days. (Yay Joe!)