General Discussion

Ms. Toad

(38,506 posts)

30. That's more sophisticated modeling than I've been doing.

Tue Jul 27, 2021, 09:53 PM

Jul 2021

I'm pretty accurate at predicting close in targets (i.e where we will be in 2-4 weeks). I'm pretty accurate at recognizing when a downturn starts. I have no skill at all at predicting the end of the surge.

But - given past surges, assuming we do something to stop the surge (i.e. get more people vaccinated, mandate masks, mandate stay-at-home orders) that seems reasonable. If we do nothing to stop the surge, I suspect it will last longer than 12 weeks.

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Higher COVID Rate Found In Some Counties With Higher Vaccination Rate [View all] Laura PourMeADrink Jul 2021 OP

Another possibility is that vaccinated stopped all covid precautions, LisaL Jul 2021 #1

Exactly! Meaning some of us are infected and Laura PourMeADrink Jul 2021 #3

We got a regular test at CVS phylny Jul 2021 #12

Yay - Laura PourMeADrink Jul 2021 #15

I agree. Politicians bowed to the MAGA/business/media pressure to open things up too early. PSPS Jul 2021 #4

I have so many relatives and Friends that have the attitude " I'm Laura PourMeADrink Jul 2021 #7

I Was Expecting Cases To Soar SoCalDavidS Jul 2021 #2

It's almost like nature may be helping us solve the problem tho Laura PourMeADrink Jul 2021 #5

The US is on target to hit 200,000 cases/day by mid-August. Ms. Toad Jul 2021 #26

Yes, Momentum SoCalDavidS Jul 2021 #27

That's more sophisticated modeling than I've been doing. Ms. Toad Jul 2021 #30

Just in time for State Fair season! Strelnikov_ Jul 2021 #31

I've been focused on the start of school. Ms. Toad Jul 2021 #32

Everything points to a bloodbath a month or so after schools go back into session Strelnikov_ Jul 2021 #33

I start in 2 weeks. Not likely. Ms. Toad Jul 2021 #35

Please keep us posted.. hope it's still negative Laura PourMeADrink Jul 2021 #40

Will do. n/t Ms. Toad Jul 2021 #41

Vaccinated shouldn't be removing their masks either. LisaL Jul 2021 #37

Agreed. But we're nowhere near that being a possibility. Ms. Toad Jul 2021 #39

The phenomenon is called "risk compensation" Effete Snob Jul 2021 #6

Yes, it is! Like I said above, I've been thinking about Laura PourMeADrink Jul 2021 #11

Bicycle helmets Effete Snob Jul 2021 #17

Very interesting.. Makes sense. Immediately thought of how much more careful Laura PourMeADrink Jul 2021 #22

Your risk is going to be very different LisaL Jul 2021 #21

The key question is are infection rates high among ALL people, or just among unvaccinated people? nt Binkie The Clown Jul 2021 #8

Yes. So much to learn, isn't there? I seldom hear anything about Laura PourMeADrink Jul 2021 #13

☝️☝️☝️☝️☝️ PortTack Jul 2021 #25

So, in a 50-50 vaccinated public - Ms. Toad Jul 2021 #28

Surely, you'd expect rural counties to have low vaccination rates and infection rates. Doodley Jul 2021 #9

They aren't cramming onto public transport. Phoenix61 Jul 2021 #14

I truly wonder why the government and the powers that be Laura PourMeADrink Jul 2021 #16

Delta changed a lot of things. Phoenix61 Jul 2021 #20

Would you mind explaining that a little bit more? Dumb it down for me:) Laura PourMeADrink Jul 2021 #23

The Delta viral load is 1,250 times higher Phoenix61 Jul 2021 #24

Sorry to be so dense. But your explanation explains why Laura PourMeADrink Jul 2021 #43

The vaccinated people live in more densely Phoenix61 Jul 2021 #45

+1. Thanks Laura PourMeADrink Jul 2021 #48

Post removed Post removed Jul 2021 #47

I put it down to laziness on the part of the lawmakers. This surge could have been avoided, but the Doodley Jul 2021 #36

I don't know why I was surprised that Delta really did explode Laura PourMeADrink Jul 2021 #46

Church Effete Snob Jul 2021 #19

I'm wondering if it relates to the spread cally Jul 2021 #10

Excellent point! God there's so much to learn. I totally agree Laura PourMeADrink Jul 2021 #18

I think it's just population, the big cities have a high vac rate, but high population density Johonny Jul 2021 #29

Good point Strelnikov_ Jul 2021 #34

denser areas will have higher numbers pstokely Jul 2021 #38

My great-grandson is on the junior varsity football team in high school. marie999 Jul 2021 #42

Message auto-removed Name removed Jul 2021 #44