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Ms. Toad

(38,717 posts)
8. This is misleading because of people's math illiteracy
Wed Dec 22, 2021, 09:06 PM
Dec 2021
Omicron will cause more infections but lower hospital rates, analysis shows


Marginally lower hospitalization rates multiplied by dramatically higher number of infected people will result in a much larger number of people in the hospital. We are bursting at the seams now.

Globally, the analysis projected that the world will see 3 billion or more infections over the next three months, which is as many as the entire two years of the pandemic, said Dr. Chris Murray, director of the university's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.


It is too early to have reliable numbers on hospitalization, but one estimate I've seen is 1/3 as many.

So - assuming that is correct (a ginormous assumption) - we would have the equivalent of 7.3 months' worth of hospitalizations a month. (The hospitalizations were not evenly spread over the 3 years, so it won't be quite as bad as that sounds - but we don't have spare capacity around here to absorb even a fraction of a month's extra hospitalizations.

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This message was self-deleted by its author Chin music Dec 2021 #1
A death rate of even 1% ... VMA131Marine Dec 2021 #2
With overwhelmed hospitals, ... could be. Tetrachloride Dec 2021 #5
Where is 1% coming from? former9thward Dec 2021 #11
the lethality rate for any of the variants was never close to 1%, and Omicron will have a far lower Celerity Dec 2021 #20
834,000 deaths out of 52,000,000 confirmed cases VMA131Marine Dec 2021 #24
That total case number is massively undercounted. Tens of millions Celerity Dec 2021 #27
You mean you think it's massively undercounted. VMA131Marine Dec 2021 #29
Your assumptions are not based in science, and also, another point, you are not taking into acount Celerity Dec 2021 #32
The CDC thinks it's massively undercounted too. Crunchy Frog Dec 2021 #33
So, 140,000,000 actual cases means VMA131Marine Dec 2021 #37
Also, you are making two futher massive errors. Celerity Dec 2021 #28
I think you're on the wrong forum VMA131Marine Dec 2021 #30
Are you serious? How dare you accuse me of being a RWer when I am simply using Celerity Dec 2021 #31
I am serious VMA131Marine Dec 2021 #35
you are WAY out of bounds, and breaking TOS, I am NOT some fucking closet RWer, its bullshit Celerity Dec 2021 #36
You're the one downplaying the seriousness of the pandemic VMA131Marine Dec 2021 #38
your 1.4 million new deaths number is ridiculous and not science based, it is pure fear mongering Celerity Dec 2021 #39
The current death rate on confirmed cases ... VMA131Marine Dec 2021 #40
you cannot find a single credible scientist who says that the case fatality rate in the US for Celerity Dec 2021 #41
I appreciate your diligence and your attempt to inject reality into the hysteria. PTWB Dec 2021 #43
Agreed! beaglelover Dec 2021 #44
Its just bizarre to claim a huge new, never before seen 1.4 million strong death wave coming, caused Celerity Dec 2021 #46
Well, as time goes on we will see who is right ... VMA131Marine Dec 2021 #45
You absolutely will be wrong, by a massive amount. I almost never make definitive statements, but Celerity Dec 2021 #48
Lighten up, Francis! VMA131Marine Dec 2021 #49
You Scrappin' With The Wrong Gal, Fella.... The Magistrate Dec 2021 #50
Why? Because I realise there isn't nearly enough data VMA131Marine Dec 2021 #51
Among Other Things, Dear The Magistrate Dec 2021 #52
As to the last point, bullshit VMA131Marine Dec 2021 #53
This message was self-deleted by its author Chin music Dec 2021 #21
Since I got my booster in November I kind of want to get Omicron madville Dec 2021 #3
Looks like your chances of getting it are pretty good. LisaL Dec 2021 #6
I work and interact with people everyday madville Dec 2021 #7
Same Calculating Dec 2021 #14
Ask your pharmacist about other vaccines Tetrachloride Dec 2021 #4
I got my booster, tetanus and flu in November madville Dec 2021 #12
This message was self-deleted by its author Chin music Dec 2021 #22
We have already started doing that Thtwudbeme Dec 2021 #47
This is misleading because of people's math illiteracy Ms. Toad Dec 2021 #8
Innumeracy is math illiteracy. LastDemocratInSC Dec 2021 #17
Ok . . . n/t Ms. Toad Dec 2021 #18
Try not to get too down. BannonsLiver Dec 2021 #42
IHME Estimates Have Been Notably Unreliable ProfessorGAC Dec 2021 #9
Yea, we don't know the exact number of infected. LisaL Dec 2021 #10
No Doubt It Will Be Dramatic ProfessorGAC Dec 2021 #13
This message was self-deleted by its author Chin music Dec 2021 #23
+1, This is what pisses me off about the current group think on omnicron seeing there are 2 other uponit7771 Dec 2021 #26
Daily Mail marybourg Dec 2021 #15
Yeah, Delphinus Dec 2021 #16
Roughly equivalent to the National Enquirer, Ms. Toad Dec 2021 #19
we call it the Daily Heil, its a reactionary RW rag, was and is massively pro Brexit and pro Tory Celerity Dec 2021 #34
Not as severe as Delta? NowISeetheLight Dec 2021 #25
I know a bunch of people that caught it in the last two weeks. Renew Deal Dec 2021 #54
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